It's as if the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France have had a brain transplant this season.
This year's Tour looks like the Giro, and vice versa. The Tour is packed with a merciless string of climbs and is short on time trials, while the Giro features a Tour-like time trial of nearly 60 kilometers and serves up a "light" climber's menu that is unlike anything the Giro has seen in more than a decade.
Despite 21 stages totaling 3,480 kilometers, starting Saturday with a team time trial, the battle for the maglia rosa will be fought during the final week. There are no major first-week climbs, no dirt roads across Tuscany. Starting in the Stage 14 individual time trial (59.2 kilometers), the final week will decide who earns the pink jersey.
With only six mountaintop finales -- light by Giro standards -- riders such as Rigoberto Urán (Etixx-Quick-Step) and Richie Porte (Sky) will hope to use the long time trial to open up important gaps to Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) and Fabio Aru (Astana). That means the climbers will have to attack every time the road tilts upward, and with a relative lack of truly challenging climbs, they cannot afford to let an opportunity slip past.
The sprinters will see more chances this year, with at least six clear opportunities, perhaps even a few more. Stage-hunters and puncheurs will also have more opportunities, as the GC favorites will be working to keep things tight going into the decisive final climbs. Perhaps that's just what the Giro organizers were hoping for; a taut race that could go down to the penultimate stage to Sestriere.
Week 1: Avoiding disaster
Crashes, and avoiding them, have proven decisive in recent grand tours. Mishaps have been part of cycling since its inception, but there has been a steady uptick in high-profile crashes the past few years. Though typically less nerve-wracking than the Tour, the Giro's first week is laden with possible landmines for the GC contenders. Last year saw two protagonists go out early: Joaquim Rodríguez (Katusha) crashed hard in Stage 6, derailing his hopes for an elusive pink jersey, while Dan Martin (Cannondale-Garmin) crashed in the opening stage last year in Belfast. Neither is back this year.
The remainder of the first week is laden with tricky stages, with some hilly terrain and technical finales designed to spice up the sprint finishes that can often prove disastrous as the peloton fights for position. Stages 2-4 follow that pattern, and the Giro's first mountaintop finish will come in Stage 5, arriving atop the second-category climb to Abetone. Though not terribly steep, the finish-line time bonuses will come into play in the first-week chase for pink.
The sprinters will get their chances in the first week, especially riders like Juanjo Lobato (Movistar) and Michael Matthews (Orica-GreenEdge), who can pack a punch in the explosive finales.
The first week closes out with the second summit finale in Stage 8 to Campitello Matese. The lumpy stage ends with a first-category climb, enough to reveal who has the legs. The stage should put a rider clearly into pink going into the second week.
Week 2: Setting up the 'fight for pink'
Following the first rest day on May 18, the Giro loops back north, with the decisive time trial waiting at the end of the week. A string of sprint and breakaway stages leads to the Giro's third weekend, one that will prove pivotal about who has a real chance of winning the Giro.
The 59.2-kilometer time trial from Treviso to Valdobbiadene in Stage 14 is the longest of this year's grand tours and will give wings to Porte and Urán, the latter who won on a similar course last year in Barolo. Contador inspected the course, and said it's not nearly as lumpy as it appears in the official course profile, which will favor Porte and Urán even more. Contador's time trialing abilities have receded, at least compared to the 2009 Tour, when he beat Fabian Cancellara in the long time trial around Lake Annecy. In Stage 14, Contador, Aru and the other climbers will be doing their best to limit their losses to Porte and Urán. It will set up a real dogfight in the final week if either of them can take huge gains.
The weekend concludes with the 165-kilometer stage from Marostica to Madonna di Campiglio. The Passo Daone, with 31 kilometers to go, could see some long-distance attacks from stage hunters, but the GC favorites will likely hold their matches to the final first-category run to the finish line. This is the first time since 1999 the Giro has returned to the climb, where Marco Pantani won the stage. He was caught with a high hematocrit afterward and was eventually kicked out of the race. No one's hoping to see a repeat of that kind of off-race drama.
Week 3: Attacking to win
Three major climbs in the final week will be the real battleground. Depending on what happens in the time trial, the climbers will be forced to attack.
Following the Giro's second rest day, the race goes straight back into the climbs with the decisive 174-kilometer stage finishing atop Aprica. The five-climb stage tackles the feared Mortirolo climb, riding it up the steeper northern approach. The stage will prove pivotal, and none of the GC favorites can afford to cede ground at this point in the race.
A quick detour into Switzerland delivers up two stages for stage-hunters, ahead of the final two mountaintop finales that will crown the eventual winner. The 236-kilometer 19th stage to Cervinia features three first-category climbs packed into the last 75 kilometers of racing. The final 19-kilometer grind up to Cervinia will favor riders such as Contador, who has the team and the reserves to go deep into the stage, and finish it off with a race-breaking acceleration late on the climb.
The final podium will be decided on the 196-kilometer penultimate stage that tackles the gravel-road climb up Colle delle Finestre. Set high in the Italian Alps, the spectacular climb will provide the last chance for riders to break their rivals. The final ramp to Sestriere will define any unsettled business going into the final sprint into Milano.
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